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I. BHAVANI DEVI*, M. SRIKALA, V. SUBRAMANYAM AND T. ANANDA
Department of Agricultural Economics, S.V. Agricultural College, Tirupati-517502
India has recorded an export compound annual growth rate of 12.74 per cent. The compound growth rate of area was 0.15 per cent over the 40 years period. But production growth was 2.94 per cent, which was more driven by productivity growth 2.71 per cent. In the overall period of 1960-62 to 2007-08 the growth in area was more a less stabilized with only Gujarat state recording a negative growth rate of 5.78 per cent. Rajasthan in the recent decade of 2001-02 to 2007-08, stood out as the highest achiever of production growth of 7.58 per cent. It was Andhra Pradesh which recorded the highest growth of 4.98 per cent during the period of 1961-62 to 2007-08 in production. In Andhra Pradesh, the compound growth rate of area was 1.07 per cent, while that of production and productivity were 5.69 and 4.47 per cent respectively.
Area, Chillies, Export, Production, Productivity
India is the leading producer of chilli contributing close to 43 per cent of world’s production followed by China (8.6 per cent) and Peru (5.6 per cent). Besides India, other major producers and exporters are China, Pakistan, Morocco, Mexico and Turkey. This shows that the bulk share of chilli production is in Asian countries, though it is produced throughout the world. The top 10 chilli producing countries, India, China, Ethiopia, Myanmar, Mexico, Vietnam, Peru, Pakistan, Ghana and Bangladesh accounted for more than 85 per cent of the world’s production in 2009. With an estimated global production of 29.6 lakh tonnes in 2009, chilli is grown in an area of approximately 18.3 lakh hectares. Against this background the present study has been taken up to estimate growth rates of area, production and productivity in the country as well as in Andhra Pradesh along with the growth rate in chilli exports.
For evaluating the trend in area, production and productivity under chillies, the following growth model was employed.
Yt = ab t ut……………………. (1)
where,
Yt = area/production/productivity in the year ‘t’
a = intercept indicating Y in the base period (t = 0)
b = Regression coefficient
t = Time period in years
ut = Disturbance term for the year ‘t’.
Equation (1) was converted into the logarithmic form in order to facilitate the use of linear regression. Taking logarithm on both sides of the equation (1).
lnY = ln a + t ln b + ln Ut ……………… (2)
This is of the following form,
Qt = A + Bt + et
where,
Qt = ln Yt
A = ln a
B = ln b
et = ln et
The linear regression of the above form was fitted separately for area, production and productivity of Chillies.
The values of ‘a’ and ‘b’ were estimated by using ordinary least squares technique Later, the original ‘a’ and ‘b’ parameters in equation (1) were obtained by taking antilogarithms of ‘a’ and ‘b’ values as,
a = Anti A
b = Anti B
Average annual compound rate was calculated as g = b – 1
To obtain percentage compound growth rate, the value of g was multiplied by 100.
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
India is the largest producer, consumer and exporter of chillies in the world. The global area which was 18.81 lakh ha in 2000 slipped slightly to 18.30 lakh ha in 2009 (Table 1). However, the global production increased from 23.87 lakh tonnes to 29.6 lakh tonnes during the corresponding period. This is due to increase in productivity from 1.27 tonnes / ha in the year 2000 to 1.62 tonnes/ha in 2009. The CAGR during the period was estimated at -3.15,-1.33 and 1.02 per cent for area, production and productivity respectively.
Area, production and productivity of chilli in India The area under chilli in the country in the last 40 years ranged from 7.83 lakh ha in 1971-72 to 8.29 lakh ha in 2003 (Table 2). There after there is a fall in the area till 2006-07 and in 2008-09 the area rose to 8.06 lakh ha. In 2009-10 the area under the crop was 7.67 lakh ha. The
production had substantially increased from a minimum of 5.20 lakh tonnes in 1970-71 to a maximum of 12.03 lakh tonnes in 2009-10, which was more than double and it was piloted by the yield increase. It is also evident as yield too increased from 664 kg/ha in 1971 to 1,600 kg/ ha in 2010. The steady increase in productivity was on account of hybrids viz., Birds eye chilli (Dhani), Byadagi (Kaddi), Ellachipur (Sannam S4 type), etc. The compound growth rate of area was 0.15 per cent over the 40 years period. But production growth was 2.94 per cent, which was more driven by productivity growth of 2.71 per cent.
Andhra Pradesh occupied about 1/4th of the total area under chillies in the country contributing 57 per cent of production (Table 3) during the triennium ending 2009-10, Karnataka was the next state in terms of area with 14 per cent followed by Maharashtra. The three states found to cultivate more than 50 per cent of the area. Orissa, Gujarat, West Bengal and Tamil Nadu were the other important states.
The productivity was highest in Andhra Pradesh with 3,462 kgs and no other state in the country could achieve even 50 per cent Andhra Pradesh’s productivity. The nearest productivity that was traced was 1,502 kg attained by West
Bengal. The productivity was 1330 kg in Rajasthan, 1,140 in Karnataka and 1,040 in Madhya Pradesh.
State- wise Annual Growth Rates of Area under chillies
Orissa recorded the highest growth of 13.25 per cent in the decadal period of 1961-62 to 1970-71 compared to any other state (Table 4). In the same decade, it is Andhra Pradesh which recorded the next highest compound annual growth rate of 5.24 per cent. In the following decade of 1971-72 to 80-81, it is West Bengal which was the forerunner in achieving the area growth of 14.39 per cent. In the decades to follow i.e., 1981-82 to 1990-91 and 1991-92 to 2000-2001, it is once again ,West Bengal which stood out as the highest growth achiever of area with a CAGR of 8.68 per cent and 2.27 per cent respectively. In the overall period of 1961-62 to 2007-08, the growth in area was more or less stabilized with only Gujarat state recording a negative growth rate of 5.78 per cent.
State – wise annual growth rates of production of dry chillies
Regarding production growth, Orissa recorded highest CAGR of 19.04 per cent during the period from 1961-62 to 1970-71, while it was West Bengal in second decadal period of 1971-72 to 1980-81 with a growth rate of 12.75 per cent (Table 5). During 1981-82 to 1990-91 it was Andhra Pradesh with 8.89 per cent and Karnataka in the following decade of 1991-92 to 2000-01 with a CAGR of 11.39 per cent. Rajasthan in the recent decade of 2001-02 to 2007-08 stood out as the top achiever of production growth of 7.58 per cent. During the overall period of 1961-62 to 2007-08 highest growth of 4.98 was achieved by Andhra Pradesh with productivity being the most powerful causative factor.
Area, production and productivity of chilli in Andhra Pradesh
The particulars furnished in Table 6. Indicate that the chilli area in Andhra Pradesh hovered around 2 lakh hectares during the period from 1971-72 to 2009-10 barring the years 1980-81 and 2005-06. On the other hand, the production rose phenomenally from 1,38,730 tonnes in 1971- 72 to 8,31,000 tonnes in 2009-10, a productivity induced rise as it spiraled from less than a tonne to about 4 tonnes during the corresponding period. The emergence of hybrids and intensive cultivation, for which the state is known were the prime factors for such a spectacular growth in productivity.
In Andhra Pradesh, the compound growth rate of area was 1.07 per cent, while that of production and productivity were 5.69 and 4.47 per cent respectively. This amply demonstrates productivity was the more powerful factor for the increased production. Similar findings were reported by Goudra et al. (2011)
India’s chilli exports
After 1980s India’s export performance was excellent and higher international and domestic demand can further push the exports. India exports chilli in the different processed forms like chilli powder, dried chillies, pickled chillies etc. Indian chillies are mostly exported to Sri Lanka, USA, Nepal, Mexico, Malaysia and Bangladesh. Among these countries, Malaysia, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh are the major importers of Indian chillies.
The total export of chilli from India during 1999-00 was 63,591 tonnes valued at ` 254.72 crore which increased to 2, 40,000 tonnes valued at ` 1535.54 crore during 2010- 11 (Table 7). Over the years, exports were increasing at a faster rate, which is evident from high compound growth rates of 14.47 per cent in quantity and 20.90 per cent by value.
Exports of chilli to different countries
Though, almost all items in the spice basket have registered a growth during the past five years, the phenomenal rise in chilli has led boom to exports from India.
Asian countries are the main buyers of chillies and consumption is increasing in these countries with the rising population. Chillies have notched up substantial increase in volume in 2010-11 against the previous year. The exports stood at 2, 40,000 tonnes in 2010-11 against 2, 04,000 in 2009-10 (Table 8). As can be observed that exports during 2009-10 and 2010-11 to the major exporting countries i.e. Malaysia and Srilanka are more or less stable, but the floods in China, Pakistan and Bangladesh have sparked exports to increase in 2010-11 to these countries compared to the previous year. Generally if China’s chilli production is good, it stands as a strong competitor to India in terms of exports.
Chilli exports by value to different countries
Spice exports have risen three–fold in value terms in the last five years. Exports of spices and spice products stood at ` 6030.74 crore during the April-February period of 2010-11. They were around ` 2,100 crore in the April-February period of 2005-06. The value of chilli exports
stood at ` 1,535.55 crore during 2010-11 compared to
` 1,291.72 crore in 2009-10 (Table 9).
Growth rates of chilli exports for major exporting countries
Global demand for chilli was pronounced to be increasing as revealed by the export CAGR of 9.42 per cent during the period from 1996 to 2006. Being the lead producer of chillies in the world, India has recorded an export CAGR of 12.74 per cent (Table 10). The same for China, which was the fierce competitor to India, was 10.63 per cent. The growth rates for Peru, Myanmar and Pakistan were 85.92, 28.85 and 27.69 respectively evidently due to lower quantities of exports in the base year.
Global demand for chilli was pronounced to be increasing as revealed by the export CAGR of 9.42 per cent during the period from 1996 to 2006. Being the lead producer of chillies in the world, India has recorded an export CAGR of 12.74 per cent. The same for China, which was the fierce competitor to India, was 10.63 per cent. The growth rates for Peru, Myanmar and Pakistan were 85.92, 28.85 and 27.69 respectively evidently due to lower quantities of exports in the base year.
CAGR during 2000-2009 was estimated at -3.15, – 1.33 and 1.02 per cent for global area, production and yield respectively.
Orissa recorded the highest growth of 13.25 per cent in the area during the decadal period of 1961-62 to 1970-71 compared to any other state. In the same decade, it is Andhra Pradesh which recorded the next highest compound annual growth rate of 5.24 per cent. In the following decade of 1971-72 to 80-81, it is West Bengal which was the forerunner in achieving the area growth of 14.39 per cent. In the decades to follow i.e., 1981-82 to 1990-91 and 1991-92 to 2000-2001, it is once again ,West Bengal which stood out as the highest growth achiever of area with a CAGR of 8.68 per cent and 2.27 per cent respectively. In the overall period of 1961-62 to 2007-08, the growth in area was more or less stabilized with only Gujarat state recording a negative growth rate of 5.78 per cent.
Orissa recorded highest CAGR of 19.04 per cent in the production during the period from 1961-62 to 1970-71, while it was West Bengal in second decadal period of
1971-72 to 1980-81with a growth rate of 12.75 per cent. During 1981-82 to 1990-91 it was Andhra Pradesh with 8.89 per cent and Karnataka in the following decade of 1991-92 to 2000-01 with a CAGR of 11.39 per cent. Rajasthan in the recent decade of 2001-02 to 2007-08 stood out as the top achiever of production growth of 7.58 per cent. During the overall period of 1961-62 to 2007-08 highest growth of 4.98 was achieved by Andhra Pradesh with productivity being the most powerful causative factor.