Department of Statistics and Computer Applications, S.V. Agricultural College, ANGRAU, Tirupati
Decision making process involves selecting the best among several decisions through a proper evaluation of the parameters of each decision environment. An attempt is made under uncertainty conditions by nature of the farmer. This study is not only introduces concepts, principles and approaches for addressing uncertainty in decision making but also gives overview regarding practical method for modelling decisions under uncertainty and selecting decision alternatives that optimise the decision maker’s objectives. A farmer who followed multiple cropping system containing crops Groundnut, Paddy, Sunflower, Red gram, Cotton and Sesame. For that I have taken two factors i.e. production and price. From that I have drawn four variables i.e. good yield; high price, good yield; low price, poor yield; good price and poor yield; low price. Different methods were fitted to the data. If the farmer is optimistic, redgram is the best alternative under MAXIMAX criterion. If the farmer is pessimistic, Paddy is the best alternative as per MAXIMIN criterion. If the farmer is mixture of optimism and pessimism, redgram is best alternative as per HURWICZ criterion. If farmer considers always opportunity cost, sesame is best alternative as per SAVAGE MINIMAX REGRET criterion. If farmer considers the instances of each and every situation any event may occur in equal chance, Groundnut is the best alternative as per LAPLACE criterion. Based on this study farmer can rely for which crop to be taken for the next year based on the current production, prices and his behaviour irrespective of other factors.
KEYWORDS: HURWICZ, LAPLACE, MAXIMAX, MAXIMIN, Uncertainty