N. PRIYANKA EVANGILIN*, B. RAMANA MURTHY, G. MOHAN NAIDU AND Sk. NAFEEZ UMAR
Department of Statistics and Computer Applications, S.V. Agricultural College, ANGRAU, Tirupati.

ABSTRACT

The present research study was carried out to identify the appropriate time series model for predicting production of
Tobacco in India by using Box-Jenkins Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models for the period 1950-51 to
2016-17.The validity of the models were statistically tested by on the basis of goodness of fit criteria’s viz., Highest R2
, Lowest
Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). Among all the models ARIMA (2, 0, 3) model
was found to be the best fitted model for predicting production of Tobacco in India for further five years. The forecasted results
showed for production of Tobacco for the year 2021-22 is to be 686.2thousand tonnes. And the results showed, there is a
decreasing trend on production from 2017-18 to 2020-21 and then increased on 2021-22.

KEYWORDS:

Tobacco, production, time series and ARIMA model.