Forecasting Prices Of Chilli (dry) In Major Markets Of Andhra Pradesh And Telangana

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S.B. RAMYA LAKSHMI, I. BHAVANI DEVI AND G. MOHAN NAIDU*

Department of Agricultural Economics, S.V. Agricultural College, Tirupati – 517 502, A.P.

ABSTRACT

In this study, chilli (dry) prices in Guntur and Khammam markets of Andhra Pradesh and Telangana were examined by using ARIMA, trend analysis, decomposition fit, moving average, SES, DES, WMM, ANN models, by using 156 months data of market prices of Red chillies the period from April 2000-01 to 2012-13 of the market prices of red chilli. The ARIMA (1,0,0) was the most suitable model to forecasts red chilli prices in Guntur, while ARIMA (1,0,1) in Khammam markets. According to the forecasts, the price of chilli per quintal would be ranging from Rs. 6,818 to 6,647 in Guntur, whereas Rs. 6,539 to Rs. 6,262 in Khammam markest for the months from April to July 2013.

KEYWORDS:

Price forecasting, ARIMA, trend analysis, decomposition fit, Moving Average, SES, DES, WMM, ANN.

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